今日板卡廠漲停

[各家板卡廠反應]

1) 麗臺(2465)大漲10%(1.05)到12元, 創兩個半月新高價, 放20倍大量; 公司連虧三年, 八九月營收有回來一點.

2) 映泰(2399)大漲10%(1.05)到11.9, 兩個半月新高價, 放10倍大量. 已連虧兩年, 營收Y/Y差.

3) 撼訊(6150)漲10%(6.5)到72.2, 爆10倍大量. 近三個月業績改善, 粗估今年依然虧錢, 已連虧數年. 撼訊為純AMD股.

4) 七彩虹代工廠承啟(2425)股價穩定, 呈現波段新高, 上方有壓, 十月中開始發動放大量, 創三個月新高價, 今日量普通. 近期買回庫藏股29.62元, 表示公司認定隱含價格29.62接近現在價格(31.7元). (0.54+0.2+0.17+0.36=1.27, 過去12個月, P/E=31.7/1.27=25).

5) 微星(2377)漲1%(1.2)到90.8, 量普通. 健康公司.

6) 技嘉(2376)漲2%(1)到51.5, 量還好. 健康公司.


[NVDA/ AMD反應]

1) NVDA 周五發表談話, 晚上美股漲196>204, 周一晚上204>207, 也有可能是因為RBC調高評等(因為intel datacenter demand還可以)加上NVDA shield發表, 沒人提到彼特幣與中國奇怪.

2) AMD周五到周一, 31>33, 沒人提到比特幣與中國.

[回歸基本面-比特幣挖礦利潤]

這次台股反應應該是反映週五中國會議提到區塊鏈, 但比特幣從周五$7,600漲破$10,000. 比特幣與中國發展區塊鏈為何是正面相關? 推測中國發展區塊鏈為的是去美元化, 而非支持比特幣, 中國已禁止挖礦活動. 中國因素拿掉, 或許單純回歸基本面, 依然是看比特幣挖礦是否能夠有利潤. 除了挖礦需求, 目前無法看到具體GPU類似的大量需求.

美光CQ4法說與南亞科最近股價

Overview:

• Shares are lower (10.9%) after Micron's Q4 earnings update that came in better than expected, however guidance for Q1 disappointed as margins are expected to be lower than anticipated weighing on earnings, despite management forecasting stronger revenues of $5.00B +/-$200M vs FactSet's $4.80B consensus. FY20 CapEx guidance expected to be 'meaningfully lower' than prior year at $7-8B vs FY19's $9.1B with equipment spending down as much as 30%.
• Analysts were mixed on the results, as results beat handily, but profit guidance was below what some saw as high expectations. Those high expectations and the lower gross margin forecasts appear to be the main drivers of the weakness today. While most firms do not see DRAM bottomed yet, others note that Micron remains profitable through the memory downturn, and should deserve multiple expansion, and they believe the environment is improving.
• Valuation:
  • P/E NTM: 15.2x vs Semi peers 15.1x and MU's five-year average of 9.6x
  • EV/EBITDA: 4.5x vs Semi peers 11.2x and MU's five-year average of 5.4x
• Sell-side sentiment:
  • Buy 61% vs XLK 52%
  • Hold 30% vs 41%
  • Sell 9% vs 7%
  • Average price target moves higher +5.4% to $53.85, implying +24.1% upside
• Forward Estimate Revisions:(Prior consensus vs updated estimates)
  • FY20 (Aug '20):
    • Revenue 2.9% to $20.67B, (11.7%) y/y
    • EPS ($0.21) to $2.47, (61.0%) y/y
  • FY21 (Aug '21):
    • Revenue 3.8% to $24.90B, +20.5% y/y
    • EPS $0.28 to $5.35, +116.1% y/y

美光對未來解讀偏向負面主因為
1) 華為 中美貿易戰
2) 川普禁止中資入美投資的議案
跟台灣南亞科沒什麼關係, 甚至華為對南亞科還是正面影響.

週五晚上美光法說會後, 股價大跌11%, 週五早上華亞科84跌到81, 本周華亞科走勢震盪, 今天跌破80, 就算這兩個禮拜都有外資調高價格, 這兩天外資轉賣.