- Shares are lower (10.9%) after Micron's Q4 earnings update that came in better than expected, however guidance for Q1 disappointed as margins are expected to be lower than anticipated weighing on earnings, despite management forecasting stronger revenues of $5.00B +/-$200M vs FactSet's $4.80B consensus. FY20 CapEx guidance expected to be 'meaningfully lower' than prior year at $7-8B vs FY19's $9.1B with equipment spending down as much as 30%.
- Analysts were mixed on the results, as results beat handily, but profit guidance was below what some saw as high expectations. Those high expectations and the lower gross margin forecasts appear to be the main drivers of the weakness today. While most firms do not see DRAM bottomed yet, others note that Micron remains profitable through the memory downturn, and should deserve multiple expansion, and they believe the environment is improving.
- Valuation:
- P/E NTM: 15.2x vs Semi peers 15.1x and MU's five-year average of 9.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.5x vs Semi peers 11.2x and MU's five-year average of 5.4x
- Sell-side sentiment:
- Buy 61% vs XLK 52%
- Hold 30% vs 41%
- Sell 9% vs 7%
- Average price target moves higher +5.4% to $53.85, implying +24.1% upside
- Forward Estimate Revisions:(Prior consensus vs updated estimates)
- FY20 (Aug '20):
- Revenue 2.9% to $20.67B, (11.7%) y/y
- EPS ($0.21) to $2.47, (61.0%) y/y
- FY21 (Aug '21):
- Revenue 3.8% to $24.90B, +20.5% y/y
- EPS $0.28 to $5.35, +116.1% y/y
- FY20 (Aug '20):
美光對未來解讀偏向負面主因為
1) 華為 中美貿易戰
2) 川普禁止中資入美投資的議案
跟台灣南亞科沒什麼關係, 甚至華為對南亞科還是正面影響.
週五晚上美光法說會後, 股價大跌11%, 週五早上華亞科84跌到81, 本周華亞科走勢震盪, 今天跌破80, 就算這兩個禮拜都有外資調高價格, 這兩天外資轉賣.