2024/10/31

iPhone 16 Pro vs iPhone 15 Pro teardown 拆解

















  • 主要外在改變
    • 6.1"增大到6.3"
    • A17 Pro升級A18 Pro
    • Wi-Fi 6E升級到Wi-Fi 7
    • 超廣角相機從12MP進化到48MP
    • 望遠相機光學變焦為3倍變5倍
    • 新增相機按鈕
    • 支持25W的無線充電







  • 內在規格的改變
    • CPU其實不同顆大小也不同, 差在GPU核心的數量, A18 5核, A18 Pro 6核, DRAM 佈局也不同. 不若之前高通或是MTK或是記憶體用sorting來分頻率高低分規格, 是完整的不同.
    • 以為是同樣的48MP, 但是零組件螺絲孔不相容, 拆解發現CMOS尺寸不同. 是否因為缺貨還是產能分配的原因, 會否跟下一隻手機開發有關?
    • PCB板子iPhone 16 Pro 比 iPhone 15 Pro 小了 20%
    • modem晶片的變化不大, transceiver和PMIC都沒變, 這部分沒有content growth.
    • Pro/ Pro Max 中拿掉一個mmWav毫米波天線因為有新的攝影按鈕, 剩下的天線移到更靠聽筒洞口的位置, 感覺是因為鈦合金比較難穿透的關係.






  • Spec Change
    • PCB size shrinking continues.
    • CPU are also different dedicated CPU for different models in die size and DRAM layout design.
    • Camera CMOS are totally different, I think this might be Apple are trying to do something different in next generation, or something had do to with Sony's marketing stretagy or supply management, shortage?
    • modem chip are not changing much, slightly upgrade on the part number, with the transceiver and PMIC are all the same, no content growth.
    • one mmWave antenna has been replaced by the camera button in the Pro and Pro Max and  has been moved up and closer to the outer edge.




iPhone 16 Pro
Analog Devices MAX11390A analog to digital converter
Apple 338S00616 DC-DC converter
Apple 338S01026-B1 power management
Apple APL109A / 338S01119 power management

Bosch Sensortec accelerometer & gyroscope

Broadcom AFEM-8234 front-end module
Broadcom BCM59367A1 wireless charging controller

Cirrus Logic 338S00967 audio codec
Cirrus Logic 338S01087 audio amplifier
Cirrus Logic 338S01087 audio amplifier
Cirrus Logic 338S00843 power management (Likely)

GigaDevice GD25Q80E 1 MB serial NOR flash memory

Kioxia K5A3RF9864 128 GB NAND flash memory

Micron MT62F1G64D4AQ-031 XT:C LPDDR5X SDRAM layered over an Apple APL1V07 / 339S01527 A18 Pro hexa-core applications processor w/ GPU & Neural Engine

NXP Semiconductors NFC controller

Qorvo envelope tracker power supply
Qorvo QM76306 front-end module
Qorvo QM76307 front-end module

Qualcomm clock generator
Qualcomm PMX65-000 power management
Qualcomm QET7100-001 wideband envelope tracker
Qualcomm SDR735-001 RF transceiver
Qualcomm SDX71M-000 modem
Qualcomm SMR546-002 IF transceiver

Skyworks front-end module
Skyworks SKY58440-11 front-end module

STMicroelectronics ST33J eSIM/secure element
STMicroelectronics STPMIA3C power management

Texas Instruments LM3567A1 LED flash driver
Texas Instruments TPS65657B0 display power supply
Texas Instruments CP3200B1G0 battery charger (Likely)
Texas Instruments SN2012027 USB type-C controller (Likely)
Texas Instruments TPS61280H battery front-end DC-DC converter (Likely)

USI 339S01464 Bluetooth & WiFi Module (Likely)
USI 339M00326 UWB module





iPhone 15 Pro Max
Apple 338S00537 audio amplifier
Apple 338S00537 audio amplifier
Apple 338S00616 power management
Apple 338S00739 audio CODEC
Apple 338S00946-B0 power management
Apple 338S01026-B1 power management
Apple APL109A/338S01022 power management
Apple APL1V02/339S01257 A17 Pro hexa-core applications processor w/ hexa-core GPU 
Apple 339M00298 UWB Module (Likely) 

layered under likely a SK hynix H58G66AK6HX132 8 GB LPDDR5 SDRAM memory

Bosch Sensortec 6-axis MEMS accelerometer & gyroscope
Broadcom AFEM-8234 front-end module
Broadcom AFEM-8245 front-end module
Broadcom BCM59365EA1IUBG wireless power receiver

Kioxia K5A4RB6302CA12304 256 GB NAND flash (Likely) 
NXP Semiconductor NFC controller (Likely) 

Possibly Apple 338S00843 audio DSP
Possibly Apple 339M00287 front-end module
Possibly Apple 339S01232 WiFi & Bluetooth module

Qorvo QM76305 front-end module

Qualcomm PMX65 power management
Qualcomm QET7100 wideband envelope tracker
Qualcomm SDR735 RF transceiver
Qualcomm SMR546 RF transceiver
Qualcomm SDX70M Snapdragon X70 modem
Qualcomm clock generator (Likely) 

Skyworks SKY58440-11 front-end module
Skyworks SKY50313 front-end module (Likely) 

STMicroelectronics STB605A11 power management
STMicroelectronics STCPM1A3 power management
STMicroelectronics ST33J secure microcontroller

Texas Instruments SN2012017 battery charger (Likely) 
Texas Instruments TPS61280H battery front-end DC-DC converter (Likely) 
Texas Instruments LM3567A1 flash controller
Texas Instruments TPS65657B0 display power supply

Winbond W25Q80DVUXIE 1 MB serial NOR flash memory



Wi-Fi/BT Broadcom $5.
Qorvo $25 in RFFE
Cirrus Logic $2+ $0.5= $3-4.





source:


2024/10/17

TSMC 3Q24 earnings thought










GPU, another IOT?
TSMC claims working with all the customers so that we know the demand is true. TSMC seeing the demand is true due to a lot of customers are coming TSMC asking for capacity.


this is by far the most persuasive methodology that saying every customer are working with them, and are having the broadest and deepest view.


However, seems no one had remembered that IOT was also described as an hot topic, but no one cares anymore. now only accounts 7%.


What will happen if all the demand of GPU 1) crushed, or disappear, 2) commoditized, if we dont need anything that is as big die size or can be replaced by things that are using right now, such as current smartphone AP capacity that replaced the GPU demand, might see a lot of capacity redundant eventually.


long-term CAGR refuse to guide, I assume to be below 15-20%, as 2024 y/y are too strong already, the growth might not sustain.

AMD are guiding CAGR to be 70+% y/y in 2023-2027.



Client's pressure forming a margin cap?
Client margin, 75% from NVDA, TSMC gross margin improved from 53.2% to 57.8%.


2024/10/2

Glass Fiber Shortage











Taiwan glass shortage
LDK glass
Taiwan glass
Nittobo
Asahi fiber glass



玻纖布方面也主攻高階產品低介電（Low DK）技術，為全球少數供應商之一，下半年目標全球市占逼近30％。


台玻
- Starting from July, monthly revenue are still showing very moderate y/y growth. No significant increase.
- Low DK product already being qualified, shipping to US big customers.
- But why the revenue data did not increase accordingly?
- 大陸玻璃純鹼期貨price rally sharply.

- 林伯豐指出，目前台玻在高階玻纖布產品開發上，已研發出第一代低介電玻纖布的DK值在10GHz下有4.58，第二代DK值4.3的產品也已完成，並持續取得國際終端大廠認證採用。

他表示，目前全球能供應高階Low DK玻纖布僅三家，包括日本日東紡、美國AGY，以及台玻；目前集團市占率約兩成，下半年在產品放量出貨下，有望挑戰三成市占，集團獲利狀況將同步獲得改善，公司將持續努力、提升獲利能見度。

據傳，台玻Low DK玻纖布已獲得銅箔基板（CCL）大廠台光電認證，並應用在5G行動通訊基礎建設、高階AI伺服器、車載裝置、高階顯卡等上。
- 不過台玻強調，長期而言，認為要到2025、2026年，整體玻璃纖維布銷售狀況才有望恢復正常水準。
- 台光電在AI伺服器的玻纖布應用中，台玻供貨比重約在25~35%






Nittobo's point of view
- Strong sales of Special Glass yarn and cloth were driven by continued healthy demand for
data center applications. Sales and profit increased (Nittobo, Aug 2024, upward revision).
- we believe that supply chain inventory build-up for T-glass was concentrated in the first quarter, and that demand will be adjusted to the actual level in the second quarter (Nittobo, Aug 2024, upward revision).

- Constructed new Special Glass factory in Taiwan
- NER needs will increase as high-end equipment in data centers begin to switch from 400GbE to 800GbE.

- industrial demand has no sign of recovery, might be a potential upcoming catalyst once every industrial demand comes back, echoing MCU suppliers'(STMicro, Infineon) view.

- 2020 Jul big fire interrupting the supply. 2019 Glass fiber shortage.


建榮 5340

- revenue significantly increase starting March.
- stock price rally in  May up to $6x, but not sustaining and fall back to $45.
- Nittobo price didnt increase much.
- AI伺服器需求上來時公司產品尚未獲得取得第一波認證，未能第一時間跟上趨勢，直到去年第4季客戶端完成相關認證才開始銷售, 公司本身也希望今年下半年能搭上趨勢。
- 今日建設工程順利完成，對於日東紡集團的營運具有重大戰略意義，未來新廠生產之低介電玻纖紗(Low DK)除供應國內廠商外，並將透過另一在臺投資公司建榮工業材料進行技術轉移
- Low Dk(NE glass)系列製品開發，其主要高頻高速低損耗應用，用於AI伺服器等產品。下一代玻璃纖維布方面，建榮NE Glass已經開始生產，T Glass仍在準備階段


富喬 1815

- revenue significantly increase starting March.
- stock price sharply increase, but with low volume.


南亞 1303
- technology might falling behind.
- stock price sharply increase.


德宏 5475
-monthly revenue bad




customer in shortage
AMZN
Tesla/ Starlink
- order being cancelled might be due to the small volume.


Who made the PCB for AI servers?
日東紡的Low-Dk玻纖布在2019年就曾出現缺貨狀況，當時最大苦主便是台燿
目前台系三雄對於日東紡的仰賴程度，台燿仍然比重最高，其次是聯茂，台光電則使用其他日系業者的材料
CCL轉嫁成本的能力通常並沒有IC載板那麼高，對獲利肯定會帶來壓力
台系CCL(銅箔基板)三雄台燿、台光電、聯茂

低熱膨脹(Low-CTE)玻纖布更是大量使用在高階的ABF載板中，主要由日東紡提供玻纖布給日立化成(Hitachi Chemical)，生產成載板用CCL材料後再交給載板廠

高階供給更加吃緊，也會連帶衝擊ABF載板的供應，恐導致市場ABF載板供不應求態勢更加嚴重，加上市場傳出，ABF載板廠普遍也有持續調高報價的企圖心，受此事件影響，恐怕讓ABF載板報價有持續向上走揚的可能性。
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