2024/10/2

glass fiber shortage

Taiwan glass shortage
LDK glass
Taiwan glass
Nittobo
Asahi fiber glass



玻纖布方面也主攻高階產品低介電(Low DK)技術,為全球少數供應商之一,下半年目標全球市占逼近30%。


台玻
- Starting from July, monthly revenue are still showing very moderate y/y growth. No significant increase.
- Low DK product already being qualified, shipping to US big customers.
- But why the revenue data did not increase accordingly?
- 大陸玻璃純鹼期貨price rally sharply.

- 林伯豐指出,目前台玻在高階玻纖布產品開發上,已研發出第一代低介電玻纖布的DK值在10GHz下有4.58,第二代DK值4.3的產品也已完成,並持續取得國際終端大廠認證採用。

他表示,目前全球能供應高階Low DK玻纖布僅三家,包括日本日東紡、美國AGY,以及台玻;目前集團市占率約兩成,下半年在產品放量出貨下,有望挑戰三成市占,集團獲利狀況將同步獲得改善,公司將持續努力、提升獲利能見度。

據傳,台玻Low DK玻纖布已獲得銅箔基板(CCL)大廠台光電認證,並應用在5G行動通訊基礎建設、高階AI伺服器、車載裝置、高階顯卡等上。
- 不過台玻強調,長期而言,認為要到2025、2026年,整體玻璃纖維布銷售狀況才有望恢復正常水準。
- 台光電在AI伺服器的玻纖布應用中,台玻供貨比重約在25~35%






Nittobo's point of view
- Strong sales of Special Glass yarn and cloth were driven by continued healthy demand for
data center applications. Sales and profit increased (Nittobo, Aug 2024, upward revision).
- we believe that supply chain inventory build-up for T-glass was concentrated in the first quarter, and that demand will be adjusted to the actual level in the second quarter (Nittobo, Aug 2024, upward revision).

- Constructed new Special Glass factory in Taiwan
- NER needs will increase as high-end equipment in data centers begin to switch from 400GbE to 800GbE.

- industrial demand has no sign of recovery, might be a potential upcoming catalyst once every industrial demand comes back, echoing MCU suppliers'(STMicro, Infineon) view.

- 2020 Jul big fire interrupting the supply. 2019 Glass fiber shortage.


建榮 5340

- revenue significantly increase starting March.
- stock price rally in  May up to $6x, but not sustaining and fall back to $45.
- Nittobo price didnt increase much.
AI伺服器需求上來時公司產品尚未獲得取得第一波認證,未能第一時間跟上趨勢,直到去年第4季客戶端完成相關認證才開始銷售, 公司本身也希望今年下半年能搭上趨勢。
今日建設工程順利完成,對於日東紡集團的營運具有重大戰略意義,未來新廠生產之低介電玻纖紗(Low DK)除供應國內廠商外,並將透過另一在臺投資公司建榮工業材料進行技術轉移
Low Dk(NE glass)系列製品開發,其主要高頻高速低損耗應用,用於AI伺服器等產品。下一代玻璃纖維布方面,建榮NE Glass已經開始生產,T Glass仍在準備階段


富喬 1815

- revenue significantly increase starting March.
- stock price sharply increase, but with low volume.


南亞 1303
- technology might falling behind.
- stock price sharply increase.


德宏 5475
-monthly revenue bad




customer in shortage
AMZN
Tesla/ Starlink
- order being cancelled might be due to the small volume.


Who made the PCB for AI servers?
日東紡的Low-Dk玻纖布在2019年就曾出現缺貨狀況,當時最大苦主便是台燿
目前台系三雄對於日東紡的仰賴程度,台燿仍然比重最高,其次是聯茂,台光電則使用其他日系業者的材料
CCL轉嫁成本的能力通常並沒有IC載板那麼高,對獲利肯定會帶來壓力
台系CCL(銅箔基板)三雄台燿、台光電、聯茂

低熱膨脹(Low-CTE)玻纖布更是大量使用在高階的ABF載板中,主要由日東紡提供玻纖布給日立化成(Hitachi Chemical),生產成載板用CCL材料後再交給載板廠

高階供給更加吃緊,也會連帶衝擊ABF載板的供應,恐導致市場ABF載板供不應求態勢更加嚴重,加上市場傳出,ABF載板廠普遍也有持續調高報價的企圖心,受此事件影響,恐怕讓ABF載板報價有持續向上走揚的可能性。