2024/9/23

Qualcomm buying intel scenario analysis

WSJ discussing about QCOM might be interested to buy Intel, details TBD.

  • To Buy
    • Gain share in PC.
    • customer and business.
    • Own foundry.
    • QCOM aiming for the hyperscale server GPU, aiming at server market. Dominating all the server CPU (90%+) market share, which they never had chance to get in.
    • Creating new narratives/ story on AI ecosystem.

  • Not to Buy
    • No need to gain share in PC, as QCOM can get into the market from AI PC sector. Even AI PC QCOM are not very successful.
    • Even Intel itself are struggling on the foundry technology development.
    • Also Qualcomm are using both TSM and Samsung as foundry. Pretty stabilize on TSM's outsource. However, QCOM had faced certain issues 2 years ago when using Samsung foundry, that had given MTK's dimensity some opportunities back then. Also QUALCOMM are suing Samsung's business in order to get the socket in Samsung Galaxy flagship, which has no meaning to buy an new foundry.
    • Intel modem business in iPhone failed. QCOM are not aiming at the communication business.
    • AI business trend might flow to the "low power" in the near-term, which makes buying intel less urgent.

  • Status
    • Anti-trust hardly pass in China according to privous experience.
    • Intel wants to work on GPU. while are not successful neither.
    • Timing is strange that the stock price might get lower going forward.
    • Intel book value ~$27.
    • QCOM GM 55%.
    • Intel GM 3x-4x%

  • Synergies
    • Cost saving, similar business as IC design sector, can cut many redundant position, and outsource chip making to TSM.
    • broaden customer base, revenue per customer increase.
    • Opportunity to break into AI business.

  • Financial modeling
    • TBD
    • adding chart to the title and financial chart.
    • Cathay line: mobile eye and Automotive, wait Intel foundry to spin-off.






source:
https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/qualcomm-approached-intel-about-a-takeover-in-recent-days-fa114f9d





2024/8/28

AMD

同時進行開發, 驗證, 縮短上市時間


AMD 將以 49 億美元 的價格收購 ZT Systems,其中包括高達 4 億美元 的或有付款


AMD 認為,該製造業務在過去 12 個月內的收入超過 100 億美元,在美國和歐洲擁有製造基地


AMD 將保留 ZT Systems 的設計、系統和服務部門,預計這些部門的年營運支出約為 1.5 億美元3。 這些部門的收入目前相對較小,但在 AMD 的整體財務狀況中預計將增長到足以在 2025 年底之前實現盈餘平衡




訊息來源並未具體說明 AMD 打算對其產品進行哪些增強

no margin info




Non-China and non-Taiwan server manufacture site, but why are players going to buy ZT


ZT Systems 向最大的超大規模雲端公司運送了大量的伺服器和 AI 機架




 AMD(ZT Systems 即將成為其母公司)與微軟、Meta 和 Oracle 以及其他雲端客戶有大規模的部署


we see 2024 as the start of a multiyear AI adoption cycle, with the accelerator markets expected to grow to $400 billion in 2027.


Microsoft, Meta and Oracle, as well as other cloud customers, all major OEMs and the leading server manufacturers offer MI300 solutions.

we're on track to deliver more than $4.5 billion of revenue – of data center GPU revenue in 2024.









NotebookLM


關於併購幾乎不可能會成功


Inventec

之前拆解GF




2024/1/1

日本地震 能登石川 供應鏈影響

  • 日本西邊能登地區發生強震
    • 1885年來最大
    • 1/1發生
    • 1/2解除警報


2024/1/1 日本地震 能登石川地區 供應鍊影響
上次2011日本大地震海嘯是東側沿岸, 這次是西側

  • 相關供應鍊
    • 松下/ 國際電機/ 三墾電器/ 東芝/ JDI/ Murata
    • 東芝與三墾電器目前沒有說明, 感覺可疑, 要關注功率半導體供應鍊方面問題, 尤其車用相對緊.
    • 晶片是否又要漲價缺貨

  • 松下(panasonic)
    • 電機生產基地
    • 無影響

  • 國際電機(KOKUSAI ELECTRIC)
    • 半導體設備
    • 無影響

  • 三墾電氣(Sanken Electric)
    • 電源管理IC、馬達驅動器、數位控制IC等)和分立功率半導體產品, 車用MOSFET與IGBT.
    • 7thin power modules 1st in magnetic sensors
    • 目前無公佈消息

  • 東芝(Toshiba)
    • 12"功率半導體MOSFET, IGBT工廠, 目前無公佈消息. 
    • 1Q23剛開工, 第一階段計劃於2024財年開始營運。當一期全面投產後,公司功率半導體產能將比2021財年增加2.5倍.


  • JDI
    • 液晶面板石川工廠
    • 汽車用液晶顯示器製造
    • 石川工廠和鳥取工廠的生產基地都沒有運作

  • 村田(Murata)
    • MLCC 工廠
    • 震央不在村田的主要廠區,對MLCC供需應無影響。

  • 新唐
    • 與tower semi合資的PTS
    • 不清楚生產的是什麼








source:
1