2024/9/23

Qualcomm buying intel scenario analysis

WSJ discussing about QCOM might be interested to buy Intel, details TBD.

  • To Buy
    • Gain share in PC.
    • customer and business.
    • Own foundry.
    • QCOM aiming for the hyperscale server GPU, aiming at server market. Dominating all the server CPU (90%+) market share, which they never had chance to get in.
    • Creating new narratives/ story on AI ecosystem.

  • Not to Buy
    • No need to gain share in PC, as QCOM can get into the market from AI PC sector. Even AI PC QCOM are not very successful.
    • Even Intel itself are struggling on the foundry technology development.
    • Also Qualcomm are using both TSM and Samsung as foundry. Pretty stabilize on TSM's outsource. However, QCOM had faced certain issues 2 years ago when using Samsung foundry, that had given MTK's dimensity some opportunities back then. Also QUALCOMM are suing Samsung's business in order to get the socket in Samsung Galaxy flagship, which has no meaning to buy an new foundry.
    • Intel modem business in iPhone failed. QCOM are not aiming at the communication business.
    • AI business trend might flow to the "low power" in the near-term, which makes buying intel less urgent.

  • Status
    • Anti-trust hardly pass in China according to privous experience.
    • Intel wants to work on GPU. while are not successful neither.
    • Timing is strange that the stock price might get lower going forward.
    • Intel book value ~$27.
    • QCOM GM 55%.
    • Intel GM 3x-4x%

  • Synergies
    • Cost saving, similar business as IC design sector, can cut many redundant position, and outsource chip making to TSM.
    • broaden customer base, revenue per customer increase.
    • Opportunity to break into AI business.

  • Financial modeling
    • TBD
    • adding chart to the title and financial chart.
    • Cathay line: mobile eye and Automotive, wait Intel foundry to spin-off.






source:
https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/qualcomm-approached-intel-about-a-takeover-in-recent-days-fa114f9d