- AI GPU的事情
- 廣達, 英業達法說仍然在說缺AI GPU
- HBM2, HBM3, HBM3e各種說法分歧, 市場搞不懂也沒人在意.
- H200最新一顆用HBM3e, 會不會造成市場供需又失衡?
- 最近4Q23想法
- 會不會真的出問題, 美光HBM3也送跨sample太久了吧, 快要半年了還沒搞定. 主晶片B100都已經要出HBM3e了.
- 美光看法說會說法, 會不會又想要彎道超車, 放棄HBM3, 直接跨HBM3e. 因為這是一個贏家通吃的市場, 做舊產品做得再好也沒用.
- 之前3Q23想法
- HBM產很小, 只有個位數的占比, 提升空間很容易. 且韓廠在各種DRAM類型之間轉換相對迅速
- DRAM價格急劇上漲的問題, 歸咎於下游的參與炒作.
- HBM direct account 炒作空間有限.
- DRAM的行情開年來相對低迷, 其他應用需求差, 產能相對寬鬆.
- SK Hynix 3Q23
- Shipped samples of 1bnm HBM3E in Aug.
- AI server CAGR 40%+ annually for the next five years.
- HBM demand 60-80% CAGR, real growth might be higher than we are seeing today.
- HBM share are around Mid-to high teen% of DRAM share.
- Hynix inventory meaningful decline in CQ3 lead by HBM DDR5 while DDR4, LPDDR4 digest slower than previous recovery cycles.
- 1A +1B >50% of total production lead by DDR5 and HBM.
- The price on legacy product and pricing strategy on new gen product. HBM not an parallel development due to larger project size. ASP higher, with higher cost and higher performance, old product will not fall below market price. Given next year DRAM market recover and grew very fast. (Then for the customers who would be adopting the HBM3 newly, then we can set the price according to the market situation. And then for those who are shifting from 3 to 3E, then I would say that this is going to be a different arrangement of supply)< more power on price negotiation.
- In HBM there are no price inference from new tech and old tech. Unlike commodity.
- 2024 Capex increase due to memory demand recovery.
- Samsung
- Expanding HBM3/ 3E product business. Supply capacity to increase 2.5X capacity. HBM3E 9.8Gbp/s, 24 layer in 2H24. 18nm tech.
- HBM supply lower than demand growth average, recovery will happen earlier than other product.
- Micron
- 九月
- Revenue from HBM product is expected to begin in early 2024, with several hundred million dollars anticipated in FY24.
- Micron HBM3E is currently in qualification for NVIDIA compute products
- As a result, HBM3 and 3E demand will absorb an outsized portion of industry wafer supply.
- 七月
- 1-beta technology, TSV
- We expect to begin a mass production ramp for this exciting HBM3 product in early calendar 2024 and to achieve meaningful revenues in fiscal 2024.
- Micron has focused on bringing an industry-leading product and HBM3 product that is in early stages of sampling, and we expect to begin production volume ramp of this product in early 2024.
- 疑似放棄HBM3, 送跨進度很慢半年都沒好.
- Lam
- And it is bigger and takes more capital, and so therefore it's a performance-driven application. From our perspective though, what really is interesting is that many of the new tools that get added to enable HBM are Lam tools or tools that are in our market, things like silicon etch and copper plating for the TSV formation.
- HBM/advanced packaging business anticipated to grow strongly next year due to undersupply and high demand, potentially exceeding $1B in revenues over the next few years
- 沒有講的很具體
延伸閱讀: HBM 2Q23想法
source: company data