- 未來展望
- Iot+automotive=$700B, 未來幾年最大成長動力來源
- RFFE為近期成長的重點案例
- +35% y/y for cloud Capex, 需求將爆發
- 近期動態
- 花了很多錢建構車用平台系統, 跟BMW合作, 效能是對手2X.
- Camera: 8k, 30 fps, 業界唯一
- Not in products but also in standards. 美國科技業最愛說component level與system level.
- RFFE相關
- The way we think our modem is not just BB, or BB+transceiver, but all the way to antenna.
- 聽起來提供了六大零件整合的功效, 雖然沒有每一個都是最好.
- >3GHz go ultra BAW, closing the gap with competitor; 承認BAW是相對弱的產品; Every customer is using this year.
- PA
- 高通自己的PA, 用自己的epitaxial stack on that transistor,
- CTO自己都說很複雜, 零組件太多.
- Envelope tracking與PA密切相關.
- 其他產品
- #1 wifi seller in the world
- Win11 5G+Snapdragon connection all the time, Samsung, acer, Lenovo, HP, Asus.
- Win11, surface Duo 2 with 5G, Surface Pro X.
- SD XR2, oculus quest 2 first device run on XR2, 10M units. 頭戴式VR晶片組.
[CFO]
- 手機市場
- SAM CAGR 12% 2021-2024, 跟RF SAM的成長率一樣; 但是第一張圖看2023-2024之間就已經幾乎不成長了, 急凍, 反應到股價推測1H:23甚至2H:22就沒搞頭了.
- 雖然他的FY 21(Sep) Y/Y都很好, 因為疫情的關係, 但是未來急凍.
- At least grow in-line with SAM, assumption 2023 Apple 20%. Just assumption no new data point.Anything better than that will be upside. 只是預設水果會掉單. 市場綜合此投影片推測2023就會掉單, 日經最愛報, 但說不定會更快.
- OXV, Honor與Samsung說有commitment, 高通最愛講Honor.
- RF
- 仔細看主要都是在手機裡面($3.9Bn/$4.2Bn), 汽車幾乎沒有, IoT也幾乎沒有
- Wi-Fi 7是一個趨勢
- 5G RF content per car $30, 推測手機裡面的RF content價格低於$30, 對於一台車子需要的5G功能想像不夠, 除穩定性外無法想像跟手機有什麼差別.
- 市占率大概目前25% (4.2/17Bn), 跟市場一起成長(所謂dram/ nand bit growth風格, 跟市場一起成長).
- Wi-Fi 7, entry point for the RF front-end module. 不知道有何關聯.
- RF also seeing commitment from customers.
- Automotive
- CAGR 36%, 尤其是ADAS大爆發; 主要收入在數位化
- 1.36^5=4.6, 五年$3.5Bn疑似慢於市場成長, 是有成長沒錯但也沒有到很大吧?
- 所謂$13Bpipeline跟年營收相關, 是指看到四年內營收嗎? Design-win pipeline, 10B>13B, next 5 years, 70% percent of rev forecast are covered in current design-wins.
- IOT: Rev up to 9BN in 2024, faster than SAM. 但是手機每年12％ CAGR, 虛擬實境VR難道只有15%嗎? 是否隱含VR沒有要大爆發? 爆發程度遜於車用.
- QCT: Mid-teens revenue CAGR and 30°/0+ operating margin
- Apple % of QCT revenues: low single digit exiting FY24
- Handset and RF front-end revenues: grow at least in-line with 12% SAM CAGR
- Automotive: $3.5B in five years and $8B in 10 years
- Three-year loT: up to $9B in FY24
- financial targets FY22-FY24
- QTL: Current revenue scale and margin profile
- Non-GAAP OpEx as % of revenues: 21%-23%
- 最後都會有一張summary, 最快的方式直接看那一張就好
- 搞半天分析師也只問數字, 管理階層面色凝重
- 發表會間隔都要用電吉他一直吵, 還不如請明星來唱歌或是youtube來廣告.
V 聽講座
V 筆記直接謄過來
V 寫成一篇
再看各個分析師筆記
再看model怎麼改
To Do List:
buyback與dividend問題
高通PA磊晶廠
Wifi 7
source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUWPzROYn2E&ab_channel=Qualcomm
